Updated June 4, 2025 at 8:48 PM EDT
The sweeping Republican bill to enact the core elements of President Trump's domestic policy agenda would add $2.4 trillion to deficits over the next decade while forcing millions to lose health insurance coverage, according to an analysis released Wednesday by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.
The findings, which focus on the version of the bill that narrowly passed the House last month, run counter to GOP talking points that the trillions set aside in the bill to extend Trump's 2017 tax cuts are offset by spending cuts in other areas and future economic growth to stem from the plan. It was an argument that allowed fiscal conservatives in the House to sign off on the bill.
The CBO is expected to release an additional estimate in the near future that would account for economic growth. The scorekeeper did a similar pair of estimates when the tax cuts passed during the first Trump administration. Those estimates showed the deficit impact decreased slightly thanks to economic growth projections — but not enough to erase it entirely.
The CBO analysis represents a snapshot, as the Senate is opening work on the bill this week and is expected to embrace a number of changes that would reshape the final makeup of the legislation. But it comes at a moment when GOP leaders are facing heightened concerns about the cost of the plan — worries that drew renewed attention on Tuesday after Elon Musk slammed the measure as "a disgusting abomination."
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., sought to address Musk's criticism by saying that changes Senate Republicans make to the bill "are going to lead to significant growth." Thune said those changes would include more "robust" cuts than were in the House version of the bill.
"At the end of the day, failure is not an option. We are going to succeed," he told reporters on Tuesday.
In addition to extending the Trump tax cuts, the GOP bill also looks to make good on several of Trump's campaign promises, including suspending taxes on tips and overtime for the duration of Trump's second term. It also includes spending to reshape immigration and energy policy.
In its analysis, the CBO said the extension of the tax cut program in the House bill would be the biggest driver of future deficits.
To help pay for the plan, the Republican bill would scale back spending on safety net programs — including the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, once known as food stamps, as well as Medicaid, the joint federal/state health care program for low-income, elderly and disabled Americans.
Those changes would come at a cost. The CBO estimated that nearly 11 million Americans would lose health insurance as a result of how Republicans hope to reshape Medicaid by introducing new work requirements, shortening the enrollment period and eliminating what lawmakers say is "waste, fraud and abuse" in the system. States would also be on the hook for potentially steep administrative costs tied to implementing and enforcing the employment verification process.
The White House was quick to push back against the CBO numbers on Wednesday, and defended the bill as a win for the economy.
"It will improve the deficit. It will help us deal with debt. It has historic levels of mandatory savings. The fact that the Congressional Budget Office doesn't agree is not particularly new," said President Trump's budget chief, Russell Vought, in a briefing with reporters.
The CBO has come under fire in recent days from the White House and Republicans in Congress who claim, without any evidence, the agency is working against them. On Tuesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt alleged that the CBO had become "partisan and political," even though its current director, Phillip L. Swagel, served in the George W. Bush administration. The agency's findings also mirror other estimates by nonpartisan groups that the the legislation would add trillions to the deficit.
Senators still at odds with some House-backed provisions
One thing Republican senators agree on when asked about the House-backed bill is that they expect it will be heavily revised by the upper chamber.
There are several critical sticking points between what the House passed and what groups of GOP senators say they can support. Those include:
- Medicaid: The House-passed bill includes new work requirements for Medicaid. Those requirements would apply to recipients without disabilities and without children. While Senate Republicans generally support the idea of work requirements, several senators have expressed concerns about significant cuts to the program itself. That includes Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley, who penned an opinion piece in The New York Times entitled "Don't Cut Medicaid."
- State and local tax deduction: SALT was a major issue of contention within the House Republican conference, with blue-state Republicans pushing to allow their constituents to be able to deduct more in state and local taxes. But the calculation is different in the Senate, where there are no Republicans who represent high-tax states like California and New York where SALT is a top priority. Various senators have already said that they oppose SALT's inclusion in their bill, including Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson.
- Rolling back clean energy tax credits: The House bill would aggressively roll back clean energy tax credits passed during the Biden administration. Four Senate Republicans sent a letter in April to Senate leadership cautioning against terminating various credits, which they wrote would "create uncertainty, jeopardizing capital allocation, long-term project planning and job creation in the energy sector and across our broader economy."
Republicans can only afford three "no" votes, assuming there are no absences. Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and Wisconsin's Johnson have already signaled their opposition to the House version of the bill out of concerns about the deficit.
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