SCOTT DETROW, HOST:
We are now in the final sprint to November and the midterm elections, and there is little question what the top issue is for voters. It is affordability. NPR senior political correspondent Tamara Keith has been checking in with a group of about a dozen swing voters in swing states, and she's back with her latest installment of Swing Shift. Do we have a theme song for that?
TAMARA KEITH, BYLINE: I wish. I wish.
DETROW: Maybe for next time. We'll work on it. In the meantime, tell us about these voters.
KEITH: You know, they all have a history of changing parties with their votes at some point in the last decade. Every one of them has voted for President Trump. Now though they're divided on how he's doing. And what I love about this project is that it's long term. It's not a one-off. They have agreed to talk to us candidly about their lives and political views over the next 2 1/2 years, through these midterms and the next presidential election. And I check in with them regularly and often start with the same question.
WALLY: Word or phrase I would use to describe the country right now. It's stuck.
JOHN: I'd say chaotic.
STEVEN: Out of control.
COLLEEN: Dumpster fire.
LEE: Better, 'cause I think things are getting better.
TERESA: I would say relief.
EVAN: Disoriented.
QUINTERO: Waiting on the edge right now.
GERALD: Worry. I think everybody is worried about whether or not these prices going to come down.
KEITH: That was Wally (ph), John (ph), Steven (ph), Colleen (ph), Lee (ph), Teresa (ph), Evan (ph), Quintero (ph) and Gerald (ph). And NPR has agreed not to use their full names to protect them from professional or personal repercussions for expressing their views.
DETROW: Let's talk a little bit more about what Gerald said, though. Gerald is worried about prices. How much does that come up?
KEITH: A lot. When I first started Swing Shift, the Iran War had just begun and gas prices had spiked. Now, six months later, the war is still going, and the average price of a gallon of regular unleaded is just over $4. I recently went to Pennsylvania and interviewed three of these voters at length, and in those conversations, the cost of living came up a lot. It's one thing to talk about affordability in the sort of abstract way that it often comes up in politics. It's another to sit in someone's home and really talk about what that means in their daily existence.
JOHN: Do you mind if we use our kitchen?
KEITH: Yeah, no. Not a problem.
John is 60 years old and lives in Philadelphia with his wife and adult son, who has autism. John's daughter just got married, and his pride in his kids is infectious. He recently retired after facing some serious health issues and is working part time as a security guard.
JOHN: I've never made more than $60,000 a year. So you tell me. Now, when I was a kid, that would be, oh, upper middle class. I don't even know if that would be lower middle class now.
KEITH: I ask him the No. 1 issue that will determine his vote, and he doesn't hesitate - affordability.
JOHN: I don't know how people today can be homeowners. So I worry about that and just food, you know, like - OK, so here's a big mistake Trump made. So Trump goes in and says, I'm going to lower your prices.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: And I will cut your energy prices in half within 12 months, OK? When that happens, everything's coming down. The doughnuts are going to come down. The food is going to come down as we save the groceries.
KEITH: John voted for Trump in 2024 and also in 2016. In 2020, he voted for Joe Biden, but quickly soured on his presidency as inflation spiked post COVID. But he says Trump hasn't kept his promises on prices. Just look no further than the dollar store.
JOHN: We love dollar stores. Well, it became the $1.25 store under Biden. Now because of the tariffs and because everything, a lot of stuff is $1.50, $1.75.
KEITH: That's not what he signed up for. John describes his economic condition as stressed, and yet he says he's luckier than most.
STEVEN: My name is Steven, and I'm 52-years-old. I live in Feasterville-Trevose, PA.
KEITH: Steven is disabled and is only able to work part time in a low-wage hourly job. He works hard, but often there isn't much left after his rent and car payment.
STEVEN: Well, yeah, there are some months I do run out of food.
KEITH: So when the price of meat or eggs is elevated, he feels it.
STEVEN: You can't expect people like me on a fixed income to pay almost, let's see, 2-, $3 worth of - for a dozen eggs.
KEITH: He says tariffs and the war with Iran are both hurting the economy. Steven is a Biden-to-Trump voter, but less than two years into his term, he'd grade President Trump's performance on the job with a D.
STEVEN: I know that he's a businessman, don't get me wrong, but he has to focus on what people want, not what he wants. He's a real estate billionaire. But what about people like myself who are not billionaires?
KEITH: This is in line with public polls that find the overwhelming majority of Americans think the president is focused on the wrong priorities. Still, both Steven and John say, given the options, they'd vote the same way today as they did in 2024.
COLLEEN: So my name is Colleen, and I am from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. I have two daughters and three dogs.
KEITH: Like a lot of kids right now, Colleen's daughters are obsessed with those squishy fidget toys called NeeDohs. And before school started, they were going from store to store looking for them.
COLLEEN: We're driving all over creation. It's insane. So yeah, the whole gas thing is kind of like I'm paying attention to because filling up my tank an awful lot (laughter).
KEITH: Colleen feels economically secure.
COLLEEN: I mean, we're not paycheck to paycheck by any stretch. But...
KEITH: But they're not totally comfortable, either. She works. She volunteers with school and sports for her daughters, probably more than she can handle. And as a result, she doesn't have a lot of time for news and politics. She voted for Trump in 2016, but not since.
COLLEEN: I mean, he talked a good game. Like, he sounded like he was going to make a positive change and get things done.
KEITH: Her grade for him now is a D minus. She's concerned about education, youth mental health and the homelessness she sees on the streets in Pittsburgh and wishes there was more focus on what's needed here at home.
COLLEEN: I just feel like we're in places we shouldn't be. We're messing with people we shouldn't be messing with. We're arguing and fighting over I don't even know what. And for me, I go to the gas pump, and I'm like, what do you mean I'm paying that much? And then I just looked - Milk is, like, five-something a gallon. I'm like, when did that happen?
DETROW: That is reporting from NPR's Tamara Keith, Tam, listening to these swing voters. I'm wondering, given all their concerns and these low grades - D, D minus - for the president, what do you think that means for the midterms?
KEITH: I mean, the President and Republicans in Congress are in a bad place. Not only are these voters upset about high costs, they are also directly tying them to the president's policies. Another of the swing shift voters, Gerald, who went from being a lifelong Democrat to a Trump super fan with the zeal of a convert, is tempering his enthusiasm as the war in Iran drags past six months. He went from grading Trump with an A plus plus plus earlier this year to just an A, with some hesitation and a lot of worry about prices. That said, I also asked these voters about Democrats, and their view of that party is also quite negative. The discontent among these swing voters is palpable.
DETROW: Senior political correspondent Tamara Keith. Thank you so much for this reporting.
KEITH: You're welcome.
(SOUNDBITE OF JOHN MAYER SONG, "BELIEF") Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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