Updated September 5, 2025 at 5:02 AM EDT
BOGOTA, Colombia —Melanio Escobar is a human rights activist and social media influencer who had to flee Venezuela five years ago.
Now he lives in Orlando, where he makes a daily YouTube show on Venezuela. Lately he's been talking about the arrival of eight U.S. warships near that country's coast, a deployment he describes as "the beginning" of Venezuela's liberty.
"What happens when an entire nation is run as a narco state, and not as a regular country?" he said in a recent show. "Sooner or later, they come to knock on your door."
Over the past two weeks the U.S. has been sending several warships towards Venezuela's coast, in a move that has generated tensions with Venezuela's government.
Venezuelans are watching closely, with a mix of hope and dread.
From his home studio in Orlando, Escobar says that the U.S. flotilla of three destroyers, a submarine and an amphibian landing force could be aimed directly at President Nicolás Maduro.
The Venezuelan president has been widely accused of stealing last year's election, and jailing hundreds of his opponents. But, more significantly Escobar points out, he has also been indicted in the U.S. for drug trafficking - with a reward of up to $50 million for information leading to his arrest - and is frequently described by White House officials as the leader of a "narco terror cartel" that sends drugs to the United States.
"Maybe it's my hope for a free Venezuela," Escobar said of the chances that Maduro will be targeted. "But every communication I hear from the White House on the situation back in Venezuela, is about Nicolas Maduro and the need for him to face justice."
There's another factor that makes Escobar think the U.S. could be trying to go after Venezuela's government. The Trump administration has recently taken significant steps to capture Mexican drug traffickers, or have those who were detained in Mexico extradited to the U.S.
"They got El Chapo Guzman, they got El Mayo, his partner in the Sinaloa Cartel, why not Nicolas Maduro?"
The Trump administration says the ships sent to international waters in the southern Caribbean are on an anti-narcotics mission. But Maduro has mobilized troops in response, saying that the deployment could be part of a plan to attack his government.
The flotilla includes three destroyers outfitted with missiles that can strike targets hundreds of miles away. There are also three ships transporting a landing force of more than 2,000 marines.
Eric Farnsworth, a security analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies said that using these gunboats to intercept drug shipments seems like "overkill".
He added that while the flotilla now patrolling the southern Caribbean is far smaller than what would be needed to invade Venezuela, it does give the Trump administration several options.
One way the flotilla could be used, Farnsworth said, is to intimidate Maduro and let his government know that if it does not follow U.S. demands to stop drug trafficking "there is the capability of using these assets against his regime."
Another option, Farnsworth explained, would be to launch missile strikes on targets inside Venezuela, including potential "decapitation strikes" aimed at Maduro's allies.
The Trump administration on Tuesday said that the U.S. boats already hit their first target: a Venenzuelan speedboat that was allegedly smuggling drugs in international waters, and carried 11 people on board.
In the capital Caracas some people say they don't expect the U.S. flotilla to do more than that.
"I think it's a theater," said Luis Alfredo Aguero, the owner of a shop that sells car parts.
He said that previous efforts to remove Maduro from power had failed, including last year's election, and doubted the U.S. would have the resolve to go after Venezuela's president with military force.
"Only God can liberate us," Aguero said.
Tony Frangie Mawad, a political analyst and journalist in Caracas, said that during his first administration Trump tried to generate chaos within Maduro's ruling circle, by sanctioning Venezuelan oil exports, and backing an interim government set up by legislators who argued that Maduro was sworn into office illegally in 2019.
Frangie Mawad says the deployment of ships to Venezuela's coast could be a new way of putting the Venezuelan military under pressure – and testing its loyalty to Maduro.
"It seems that the idea would be to generate a certain level of pressure to have people in the government or in the army either hand Maduro over, or force a sort of negotiation or conversation with the U.S. or the opposition to engage in a transition."
But the naval operations in the southern Caribbean could also just be a way for Trump to show he is tough on drug cartels.
Frangie Mawad said that as both governments increase their rhetoric, the U.S. continues to buy Venezuelan oil that is extracted by American company Chevron thanks to a permit from the U.S. Treasury. And U.S immigration authorities continue to work with Venezuela to send deportation flights to that country.
"There seems to be a lot of uncertainty," Frangie Mawad said. "And there's also a lot of different interests within the Trump administration."
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