With the clock ticking on the midterm elections, Rep. Greg Stanton recently rallied a group of Democrats in North Phoenix with a straightforward message.
“Go win,” he said. “Don’t lose!”
Stanton was helping volunteers get pumped up to canvass for local Democrats, including Amish Shah, who is running for an open seat in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District.
It’s one of two seats in Arizona that Democrats think they can win from Republicans on Nov. 3.
“Make no mistake, this race right here, C.D.1, is the most important race in the entire United States of America,” Stanton said.
Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by about 60,000 voters in this wealthy suburban district in the picturesque foothills of the Sonoran Desert.
Shah ran two years ago against the Republican incumbent, Rep. David Schweikert, and narrowly lost.
But this year, Schweikert chose to run for governor, leaving an open seat that Democrats are eager to flip.
“This was the district that John McCain used to be in,” Shah said. “He was the maverick, and he always put Arizona first. That’s what I’m hoping to continue to do in Washington.”
Shah, a former state lawmaker and emergency room doctor, is running against Republican Jay Feely. Feely is a former NFL kicker and broadcaster.
Speaking at President Trump’s political convention in Texas this September, Feely said he was inspired to run in 2024 after Trump was nearly assassinated in Pennsylvania.
“With blood on his face, President Trump raised a fist, and he told this nation to fight,” said Feely. “After 14 years of playing in the NFL and 10 years broadcasting the game I love, I walked away from a dream job to get off the sidelines and into that fight.”
Feely’s campaign did not respond to a request for an interview. However, the issues that dominate national politics are dominating this race, too. Inflation, the cost of gas, and the war in Iran were topics at a recent debate. The candidates also sparred over data centers. Feely said they could bring much-needed revenue into the state. Shah said he doesn’t want them in the district.
The race leans in Shah’s favor, according to the Cook Political Report. But as with every competitive race in Arizona, the final result will come down to independents.
A third of registered voters in the district aren’t affiliated with any party.
“Arizona voters are pretty moderate voters, both Democrats and Republicans,” said Samara Klar, a political scientist at the University of Arizona. “It’s the Democratic campaigns in Arizona who seem to be winning over that centrist mentality much more than the Republicans.”
In recent years, Arizona independents have swung to the left to help elect a Democratic governor and two U.S. senators. But they also broke for Trump in 2024.
Polls have historically overstated support for Democrats more often than Republicans. “Especially in recent years,” Klar said. “So the races do end up being much closer than people think they will be.”
Republicans in Arizona are not ready to concede.
“The best poll is on Election Day,” said Kathleen Winn, chair of the Pima County Republican Party in Tucson.
Nearby Congressional District 6, which spans a large swath of rural Southeastern Arizona, is another critical seat that Democrats think they can win from Republicans. Winn is trying to boost turnout to prevent a blue wave from cresting over the state.
“I don’t expect a wave,” she said. “There will be one-offs, there will be races we may lose. But overall, I’m confident if people vote not with their emotions, but vote with facts, the Republicans win walking away.”
With control of Congress on the line, both parties are doing what they can to get voters to the polls.
Back in C.D. 1, Democrat Dana Rakinic is canvassing a neighborhood in Phoenix when she comes to the door of Emily Schwartz.
Schwartz is Jewish, and one of Arizona’s highly coveted independent voters. She supports Republicans because they’re allies of Israel. But she can’t stand Trump’s policies against women and reproductive rights. She’s also concerned about the water supply in Arizona and the cost of healthcare.
“I think the Democrats got way too liberal and I think the Republicans are on acid, and they’re not doing a good trip,” said Schwartz, who is supporting Democrats this year nonetheless. “I really want Democrats to win Congress.”
This article was originally published on WBUR.org.
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