MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is in its ninth month, and President Trump is confronting new realities that leave him with dwindling options to ending the conflict. Republicans just lost their majority in Congress, in part because of the unpopular war with Iran and its downstream consequences, like high gas prices. And Trump's wartime ally, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is on the cusp of losing power after elections there. Joining us to talk about where things go from here is NPR's correspondent in Dubai, Aya Batrawy. Aya, good morning.
AYA BATRAWY, BYLINE: Good morning, Michel.
MARTIN: Have you seen a shift in Trump's policy on Iran now after these election losses, or at least a shift in tone?
BATRAWY: There has been a shift in rhetoric since the midterms. So before this blue wave, his administration had been warning Gulf allies like Saudi Arabia to prepare for another major U.S. attack on Iran. And Trump was publicly threatening to do that, saying he could finish the job with quick, intense strikes. But then this week, Trump stuck (ph) a different tone after he met mediator Qatar's prime minister at the White House. After that, Trump said, at this point, attacks on Iran seem unlikely. He said Gulf Arab allies actually prefer the status quo, and that's true. The UAE and others are really worried about Iran's counterstrikes. You know, these wealthy Gulf Arab countries, Michel - they have been plunged into economic recession because of the war.
But also, Trump had these election losses in the U.S., and Israel's in the midst of its own political shakeup. So with limited options, he's trying to focus on domestic problems and keep things as they are with Iran. That means economic pressure, like sanctions and the U.S. naval blockade on Iran to starve them of oil exports. And just this week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran is feeling the pain of this policy because, he says, quote, "eventually you have to eat."
MARTIN: So what does keeping the status quo actually look like in the Gulf? And is that even tenable?
BATRAWY: Well, both sides have their finger on the trigger, and fighting can resume at any moment. So this leaves the region suspended in uncertainty. The U.S. is sending a third aircraft carrier with thousands of troops to the region. And just today, Iran says the U.S. again struck an island in the Strait of Hormuz, an area Iran has drones and radars in. And Iran says it hit back, targeting a U.S. radar in Bahrain. So status quo means Iran keeps hitting ships in the Strait of Hormuz. There are huge areas now along the UAE's coastline that are actually closed because of oil spills. And then you have Arab partners that still can't get, you know, using their ports for imports or exports like before. And there's a war raging between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis in Yemen, which was reignited in part because of this open-ended Iran conflict.
MARTIN: Are there signs that the U.S. and Iran could even sit down again for direct talks?
BATRAWY: So Iran's been saying it's willing to halt attacks on oil tankers for a short period, and they want a U.S. response to that offer. But they also have listed seven demands that they want met before talks on their nuclear program can even begin. Rubio says the demands are unrealistic and absurd. They include the U.S. unfreezing billions of Iran's dollars in overseas banks and ending sanctions and the naval blockade. I spoke with Hasan Alhasan. He's a senior fellow from Bahrain with the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and he says Iran is more defiant.
HASAN ALHASAN: The war has confirmed and validated the views of hard-liners in Iran that were always skeptical of diplomatic engagement. So I think, if anything, the war has made Iran arguably more threatening. It's now no longer deterred by the possibility, the threat, of a U.S. or Israeli assault because that has happened.
BATRAWY: So with Iran arguably more threatening, you have just yesterday Trump writing on Truth Social that the U.S. itself doesn't need a deal with Iran - he says because, in his words, "we've got their money."
MARTIN: That is NPR's Aya Batrawy in Dubai. Thanks, Aya.
BATRAWY: Thanks, Michel. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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